Chinese Federation of logistics and purchasing, the National Bureau of Statistics survey on the service sector Center released, in February, China manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, than in January fell 0.3 percentage points. Among them, the main sub indices have varying degrees of decline, but still in the vicissitude demarcation line above, indicates that China's manufacturing economy is still in the expansion interval.
Data shows, affected by Spring Festival, February, our country manufacturing industry enterprises to reduce procurement activities, raw material inventory decline. Specifically, one is due this year China Lunar New Year coincides with the catch in February, resulting in fewer working days, manufacturing production and business activities of enterprises is weak, the festival influence. The two is the purchasing manager surveys of manufacturers is a monthly survey, affected by seasonal factors, larger, data is also large fluctuations.
From the statistical method of speaking, regardless of Chinese manufacturing PMI data after seasonal adjustment how, is still unable to completely eliminate the holidays and other factors. However, the PMI index in February reflected the change, the enterprise inventory is to speed up the clearing, new production cycle is about to start.
At the same time, HSBC China PMI data terminal display, in February, PMI recorded 50.4%, lower than the 52.3% in January. However, HSBC Chinese PMI numerical is already successive 4 months maintain in 50% above the critical value. The analysis thinks, strong rejection Spring Festival factors, China's manufacturing industry showed a slight expansion operation. At present, the industrial production situation in China is basically stable, the enterprise is also more optimistic about the market outlook is expected, the overall point of view, China's economy still in stabilising interval.
In fact, in the past 5 months, the PMI data of China's manufacturing industry are steady economic expansion area in more than 50%. In February, PMI data to fall, although it is affected by Spring Festival, appear normal volatility, but the volatility is less than the same period in the history of.
As an important indicator of macroeconomic, since 2012 since October, above the critical point Chinese PMI has for 5 consecutive months in 50%, the first two months of this year PMI index for the small amplitude correction, means that the expansion trend of China's manufacturing industry has been slightly lack of power, especially the small and medium-sized enterprise PMI index for several months in 50% the following. Moreover, the first two months of this year were falling instead of rising, that some small and medium enterprises cost pressures are still high, new orders, production management activity.
Of particular concern is, at present, manufacturing new orders index shows, domestic demand still need help. Since last October, recovery of the rebound of new orders index, has been 5 consecutive months in more than 50%, in January reached 51.6%, for the high stage, in February decreased significantly, in January that the rebound is mainly affected by the Spring Festival effect early release drive. At the same time, from the external demand, the new export orders index in March consecutive decline, this year in January, February were below 50%, indicating that the increase of China's manufacturing exports uncertainty.
The expert thinks, the new export orders index for the two consecutive month in shrink interval, and the employment index for 9 consecutive months of contraction in the interval, the foundation of economic growth in our country is not strong rebound. Moreover, the main sub indices are different degrees of decline, future power of the economic recovery has weakened.
In fact, the seasonal distortions before and after the Spring Festival factors, as well as the recent manufacturing industry PMI samples from 820 companies to expand to 3000 companies, increased the difficulty of data interpretation. At the same time, in recent months PMI data in a certain range, seesaw state presents a rise or fall is also very normal, reflecting the economic situation is overall a good background, economic activity has a certain degree of adjustment, but the economy is still in the bottom of a consolidation phase.
From the beginning of May last year, China has taken a series of steady growth policies, but these policies relatively mild, strength is small, therefore, the low level of growth is expected in. At the same time, due to the deep-seated problems in our economic structure and so on, are unlikely to appear before the rapid prosperity. Generally speaking, although China's economy has not appeared the full recovery of the situation, but our country is in the leading position in the global economic recovery. Especially since the beginning of this year, China's macro economy got off to a good start, keep stable operation state, the demand to further consolidate the foundation, improve the relationship between supply and demand.
Central to emphasize, to maintain macroeconomic policy continuity and stability, to improve the pertinence and validity, timely and appropriate fine-tuning, strengthen policy coordination, the foundation and driving force of China's economic development is more solid, consumption and investment with new growth space. But, in our country the profits of industrial enterprises rose, real estate investment recovery and infrastructure investment to maintain growth, in the short term, China's manufacturing industry and the overall economy will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum. |
